APK-Inform forecasts the production of grains and pulses will reach 73.8 mln tonnes in Ukraine in 2021, up by 13% compared to the preceding season. Wheat crop will grow by 10% to 27.5 mln tonnes, barley crop will increase by 2% to 8 mln tonnes and corn – by 19% to 35.7 mln tonnes.
Optimistic forecasts are based on quite good weather during the winter period, favorable conditions for spring planting campaign and price trends during 2020/21 MY providing high interest to the production of main crops.
Taking to account the current volumes of domestic consumption, the export potential of Ukrainian grains can reach 54.2 mln tonnes, up by 19% compared to the previous season (45.5 mln tonnes), and down only by 1% compared to the record of 2019/20 MY (54.9 mln tonnes). Particularly, wheat export can reach 19.8 mln tonnes (+13%), barley – 4.3 mln tonnes (+1%), corn – 29.5 mln tonnes (+27%).
Despite the optimistic forecasts, the production and trade risks remain high. Thus, dry weather conditions that became typical for Ukraine can negatively affect both early-planted crops at the final stage of vegetation and late-planted crops during the crop formation period. As to the trade, competitive risks on the key markets and risks of non-tariff regulations are the main risks for Ukraine. Moreover, after the current quite calm season, crop at about 74 mln tonnes can bring new challenges for Ukrainian logistics.
More detailed information about the challenges of the new season for Ukrainian grain market as well as the development of global market you can get within the largest international grain event Grain&Maritime Days in Odessa 2021 to be held on May 26-28.